Suicide Trend and Nowcasting of Suicide in Hong Kong.
The daily suicide count was estimated by counting the number of suicide news reports in the local Chinese-language news on the same day. We matched all suicide cases reported by media in 2019 with confirmed suicide cases recorded in the Coroner’s Court in the same year. According to gender, age, nature of the location, and suicide method of the cases, machine learning techniques were used to estimate the probability and weight of each case being reported in 2020 and 2021. By doing so, an estimation of the total number of suicide cases per day could be obtained. The model to be estimated can be described as:
| 𝑦𝑡 | Exact Suicide Count |
| Gt | Gender |
| At | Age Group |
| Dt | District of Suicide |
| 𝑃t | Place of Suicide |
| Mt | Method of Suicide |
| 𝜖 | Error Term |
Our Early Warning System incorporates outlier detection using XMR charts for monitoring process stability and identifying unusual data points and enhances quality control. The monitor statistics is: